Trump, President of the United States Once Again: Between Domestic Reform and Middle East Peace, Can He Deliver Stability?

Trump, President of the United States Once Again: Between Domestic Reform and Middle East Peace, Can He Deliver Stability?

With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States for a second time, questions have begun to mount about how this new era will affect the international stage, and the Middle East in particular. With the slogan “We will fix America”, Trump appears to be promising sweeping reforms in domestic and foreign policy, but delivering on these promises faces major obstacles arising both from deep-rooted difficulties within America and from historical, social and religious factors in the Middle East.

Trump’s Promises for the Middle East: Peace and Stability

One of the most prominent promises of Trump’s election campaigns was to turn the Middle East into a safe and peaceful region. In his first term, his policies focused on weakening the influence of regional rivals such as Iran and on supporting Israel unquestioningly. This was reinforced by controversial decisions such as the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the acceptance of the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. This approach received strong support from the Israeli government; Israel, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, saw Trump as a powerful ally.

But can Trump really bring the expected stability to the Middle East? Given the complex structure of the region, long-running conflicts such as the Palestinian question, the Syrian civil war, the war in Yemen and Saudi–Iranian tensions raise questions about how far Trump can deliver on his promises of peace.

The Palestinian Question: Complexities in Relations with Israel

On the Palestinian question, there are serious doubts about how much importance the Trump administration will attach to the rights of Palestinians. In his first term Trump made no secret of his closeness to Israel, as was clearly seen in his decisions on Jerusalem and the Golan. The close relationship he has established with Netanyahu may complicate efforts to find a just solution to the Palestinian–Israeli conflict. Trump appears to have no clear plan to balance the interests of Israel and Palestine, which is causing concern among many who seek a solution that would establish an independent Palestinian state and end the occupation.

Iran: A Policy of Pressure or Diplomacy?

Trump’s previous policies towards Iran show that he preferred tension to diplomacy. In his first term Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement signed under the Obama administration and imposed harsh economic sanctions on Iran, increasing Iran’s isolation in the international arena. Will Trump, then, continue this approach in his second term, or will he seek new diplomatic avenues to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Given the tensions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, the question of whether Trump will continue his policy of pressure on Iran or seek a diplomatic way out remains open.

Türkiye and Regional Relations: A Transformation in Policy

Relations with Türkiye may undergo a transformation in Trump’s second term. Under Biden, US–Turkish relations became markedly strained, particularly over the Syrian question and the support given to terrorist organisations.

With Trump, however, relations are expected to improve. Trump prefers to cooperate with strong leaders, such as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Türkiye. A reduction in tensions between America and Türkiye can be expected, but it should not be forgotten that Türkiye does not look favourably on America’s support for terrorist organisations, and that this may lead to further tension in the future.

Israel and the Kurds: A Complex Game

It is evident that Israel plays a complex and at times negative role in this region; it aims to protect its regional interests and to establish a new order in the Middle East. In this context, it is alleged that it also lends indirect support to the idea of establishing a Kurdish state. Israel is thought to be secretly supporting certain Kurdish groups, which creates a situation that threatens Türkiye’s internal security. Time will tell whether Trump’s policies will allow Israel to achieve its goals for a new Middle East order, or whether he will take steps to improve relations with Türkiye.

Ukraine: Can Trump Influence Putin?

The war in Ukraine has entered its third year, and how much influence Trump can have on Russian President Vladimir Putin remains a question mark. Trump has previously expressed admiration for Putin, but can he use this relationship to end the war? Given that Putin is in no hurry to withdraw from Ukraine, Trump’s ability to bring about change in this crisis remains uncertain.

Economic Promises: Will Trump Succeed in “Fixing America”?

In economic terms, Trump promises to focus on fixing America’s domestic economy, to cut taxes, to encourage domestic industries and to reduce dependence on foreign trade. However, even if America benefits from these policies, these economic transformations may run counter to the interests of some allies in the region, which could make America’s regional relations more complicated.

Internal Challenges: The Deep State and American Interests

Trump’s relationship with the military and intelligence institutions in America, what we call the “deep state”, has a major influence on foreign policy. In his first term, Trump experienced serious tensions with these institutions and was frequently in conflict with them. This raises the question of how successful Trump will be in reshaping his policy towards the Middle East.

Moreover, American political institutions and America’s allies in the region also form a complex equation, and Trump will have to deal with both internal and external challenges. In this context, Trump’s policies in the Middle East may be part of a whole aimed at strengthening America’s economic and geopolitical interests, and may not always coincide with the interests of regional actors.

In Conclusion: Will the 2nd Trump Era Bring Stability?

Although doubts persist about the achievement of peace and stability in the Middle East, Trump’s second term may signal a transition to a new phase in American foreign policy. Given the major challenges he will face in this period, however, securing stability in the region will be far from easy. The continuation of tensions in the region and of Israel’s threats may leave lasting peace in the Middle East a dream, unless Trump adopts a more balanced and just diplomatic approach.

Dr Gülşen Yusuf Sağlam