Towards an Iran–UAE War in the Persian Gulf?

SUMMARY

Following the simultaneous US and Israeli attacks on Iran on 28 February, the Tehran administration did not confine the conflict to the Israeli front alone; it turned to a large-scale military strategy in the Persian Gulf directly targeting the Gulf countries. While the total number of attacks carried out on the Gulf countries between 28 February and 26 March exceeded 5,000, it is notable that a significant proportion of these attacks were directed at the United Arab Emirates (UAE). From the start of the war until 26 March, Iran used 372 ballistic missiles, 1,826 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and 15 cruise missiles against the UAE.
These attacks were not limited to military targets; energy infrastructure, ports, airports and critical logistics hubs were also targeted. This has led the UAE’s official rhetoric to shift over time towards a harsher and more security-focused line. Iran, for its part, initially justified its attacks as part of a strategy of punishing and deterring the countries hosting the American military presence in the Gulf, but has recently pushed its rhetoric further, beginning to accuse the UAE of supporting, together with the US, a possible ground operation against Iran.
At this point, the risk of the tension between Iran and the UAE evolving into a direct conflict has increased markedly. In this framework, current developments show that the dynamics preparing the ground for a larger-scale and direct war on the Iran–UAE front in the Persian Gulf are rapidly deepening.