The US and Israeli Attack on Iran and Its Possible Consequences

SUMMARY

This study analyses the military attacks by the US and Israel on Iran in the context of the possibility of the conflict evolving into a regional war and the capacity of the Iranian regime to survive. It examines the effects of the US and Israeli military interventions against Iran, and of Iran’s counter-defence strategy, on the regional and global balance of power within the framework of four possible scenarios. These scenarios discuss the following possibilities: a limited-conflict model in which the parties freeze the conflict with a temporary ceasefire; a process of gradual escalation in which the regime survives but the conflict spreads to regional fronts; the transformation of the war into a multi-front regional war aimed directly at overthrowing the Iranian regime; and, finally, the dissolution of the regime through internal dynamics under intense military and economic pressure. The study assesses Iran’s military and political deterrence not only through its conventional capacity but also through the architecture of the regime’s military organisation, proxy militia networks, allied regional regimes and air strike assets. It also discusses what kind of fragility or resilience the armed actors and regimes linked to Iran may display in the face of the course of the conflict.